Lecture 17 - Democratic Backsliding, Repression, Autocracy Promotion
Comparative Politics - POLS 3311

Agenda

Today

    - Topic overview
    

Wednesday

    - Reading: Zhukov, Yuri M. "Repression Works (Just Not in Moderation)." Comparative Political Studies. Volume 56, Issue 11. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140231152778 - Note: You may need to be logged into the UH library system with Cougarnet or the library proxy 
    - Complete topic
    
    

Democratic backslding

Why worry about democratic backsliding?¹

Democratic backslding

Why worry about democratic backsliding?

Hyde (2020) notes that while the number of elections has leveled off, the number of elections with government harassment of the opposition or media bias in favor of the incumbent has increased.

Democratic backslding

Why worry about democratic backsliding?

2011 World Values Survey showed Millenials in the US and Europe were less likely to say that democracy is essential and more likely to embrace other values such as “strong leaders.” (Norris, 2017)

Democratic backslding

Why worry about democratic backsliding?

Erik Voeten (2016) argues that this is largely a matter of cynicism about US institutions and that it is actually driven by older people.

Democratic backsliding

Norris (2017) claims two related trends are the greatest threat to democracies. First are “sporadic and random terrorist attacks on domestic soil, which damage feelings of security,” and second is “the rise of populist-authoritarian forces, which feed upon these fears.”

Basic terminology

• Democratic backsliding
• Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening
• Regime Transition

Basic terminology

“…four broad types of regime transformation: liberalization in autocracies¹, democratic deepening in democracies², and autocratization in both democracies³ and autocracies⁴.” (Maerz et al., 2023)

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower level of democracy

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower level of democracy

For example, erosion of civil liberties, decline in the rule of law, or reduction in political rights.

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.
• Does this mean elections get worse? Do election problems always indicate democratic backsliding?

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.
• Election problems may be a symptom of backsliding, but elections are not the only indicator of democracy.

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.
• Election problems may be a symptom of backsliding, but elections are not the only indicator of democracy.
• Measured by changes in scores on measures such as Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index.

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.
• Election problems may be a symptom of backsliding, but elections are not the only indicator of democracy.
• Measured by changes in scores on measures such as Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index.
• Does democratic backslding always have to mean a country becoming a nondemocracy?

Basic terminology

Democratic backsliding

• Decline in democratic quality of governance (As defined previously in the semester.)
• Consolidated democracy moving to a lower quality of democracy
• A democracy moving to a more authoritarian form of government.
• Election problems may be a symptom of backsliding, but elections are not the only indicator of democracy.
• Measured by changes in scores on measures such as Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index.
• Does democratic backslding always have to mean a country becoming a nondemocracy? No. It does not have to involve a change in regime type, just a decline in democratic quality.

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes
• Movement away from democracy, towards closed autocracy.

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes
• Movement away from democracy, towards closed autocracy.
• How do we measure it?

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes
• Movement away from democracy, towards closed autocracy.
• How do we measure it? With the same regime type indicators as we use for democratic backsliding: Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index (among others)

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes
• Movement away from democracy, towards closed autocracy.
• How do we measure it? With the same regime type indicators as we use for democratic backsliding: Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index (among others)
• It can include changing categroies of autocracy, for example: electoral democracy to electoral autocracy, or electoral autocracy to closed autocracy.
• Does it have to involve a change in regime category?

Basic terminology

Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Happens in nondemocratic regimes
• Movement away from democracy, towards closed autocracy.
• How do we measure it? With the same regime type indicators as we use for democratic backsliding: Polity V, Freedom House Index, or V-Dem Regimes of the World Index (among others)
• It can include changing categroies of autocracy, for example: electoral democracy to electoral autocracy, or electoral autocracy to closed autocracy.
• Does it have to involve a change in regime category? No. 

Basic terminology

Regime Transition

• A change in regime type

Basic terminology

Regime Transition

• A change in regime type

    - democratic to nondemocratic
    - nondemocratic to democratic
    - changes in type of nondemocratic regime

Basic terminology

Regime Transition

• A change in regime type
• can be either direction: liberalizing or autocratizing
• usually based on cutoff points in the indicators of regime type

Basic terminology

Regime Transition

• A change in regime type
• can be either direction: liberalizing or autocratizing
• usually based on cutoff points in the indicators of regime type
• these cutoffs can be a bit arbitrary

Basic terminology

Regime Transition

• A change in regime type
• can be either direction: liberalizing or autocratizing
• usually based on cutoff points in the indicators of regime type
• these cutoffs can be a bit arbitrary
• Great source is the Varieties of Democracy Project Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) Dataset

Basic terminology

• Democratic backsliding

• Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Regime Transformation

    - A change in regime type  
    - can be either direction: liberalization or autocratization
    - The lines between regime types can be a bit arbitrary

Basic terminology

• Democratic backsliding

• Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Regime Transformation

• Autocracy promotion

    - Efforts by autocratic regimes to promote autocracy in other countries. 

Basic terminology

• Democratic backsliding

• Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Regime Transformation

• Autocracy promotion

    - Efforts by autocratic regimes to promote autocracy in other countries. 
    - Can involve providing support to autocratic regimes, military intervention, financial and economic cooperation with other autocracies, propaganda, election interference, and other means.

Basic terminology

• Democratic backsliding

• Autocratic Regression or Autocratic Deepening

• Regime Transformation

• Autocracy promotion

• Repreesion

    - The state's use of force or coercion for political reasons, especially to suppress dissent or opposition.
    - Can be physical, psychological, or economic.
    - Can be targeted at individuals, groups, or the general population.

Democratic Backsliding

Hyde, Susan D. 2020. “Democracy’s backsliding in the international environment.” Science 369(6508): 1192–1196.

Examples of Democratic Backsliding

Examples of Autocratic Regression or Deepening

Examples of Regime Transformation

Democratic Backsliding

Citations

Hyde, Susan D. 2020. “Democracy’s backsliding in the international environment.” Science 369(6508): 1192–1196.

Maerz, S. F., Edgell, A. B., Wilson, M. C., Hellmeier, S., & Lindberg, S. I. (2023). Episodes of regime transformation. Journal of Peace Research, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231168192

Norris, Pippa. 2017. SSRN Electronic Journal “Is Western Democracy Backsliding? Diagnosing the Risks.” https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2933655 (Accessed January 17, 2022).

Veoten, Eric. Washington Post, The Monkey Cage. “It’s actually older people who have become more cynical about U.S. democracy.” December 14, 2016.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/14/its-actually-older-people-who-have-become-more-cynical-about-u-s-democracy/

Authorship, License, Credits

• Author: Tom Hanna

• Website: tomhanna.me

• License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.</>